Israeli military and strategic actions targeting Iran and its proxies have fundamentally altered the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape, tilting the balance of power toward Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
By weakening Iran’s regional influence through targeted operations, Israel—acting as a U.S. proxy—has created conditions that enhance the diplomatic, economic, and strategic leverage of these Gulf states. Israel’s actions, driven by U.S. directives and informed by deliberate strategy, have positioned Saudi Arabia and Qatar as pivotal beneficiaries in the evolving regional order.
Weakening Iran’s Axis of Resistance: A U.S.-Directed Strategy Executed by Israel
At the behest of the United States, Israel has conducted aggressive military campaigns against Iran’s proxies—Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iranian-backed forces in Syria—significantly diminishing Tehran’s regional influence. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, a key Iranian ally, was a direct result of U.S.-orchestrated pressure on Israel to deliver “strong blows” to Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran itself. These actions, critical to U.S. national security interests, have dismantled Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” creating a power vacuum that Saudi Arabia and Qatar may exploit.
Saudi Arabia has emerged as the “leading beneficiary” of this U.S.-driven strategy, capitalizing on Iran’s weakened position to assert regional dominance. U.S. dependence on Israel to target Iran’s proxies has allowed Saudi Arabia to take a central role in post-conflict reconstruction and decision-making in Syria and beyond. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic engagement in Syria, including a landmark visit by its foreign minister to Damascus, underscores its growing influence in areas previously under Iran’s sway. Riyadh’s restored relations with Iran in 2023, mediated by China, further enhance its ability to navigate regional dynamics without direct confrontation, a flexibility encouraged by U.S. strategic priorities.
Meanwhile, Qatar has leveraged its role as a U.S.-aligned mediator in the Israel-Hamas conflict to enhance its regional stature. With U.S. encouragement, Qatar brokered a ceasefire and hostage-exchange deal in January 2025, demonstrating its diplomatic influence in Gaza’s post-war governance discussions alongside Egypt and the UAE. Qatar’s ability to maintain relations with both Iran and the U.S., while hosting the largest U.S. military base in the region, positions it as a critical intermediary, amplifying its power in line with American objectives to stabilize the region without direct U.S. intervention.
Israeli Gaza Policy: U.S.-Driven Support for Saudi and Qatari Interests
Israel’s contradictory policies in Gaza—military operations against Hamas paired with facilitating Qatari financial aid—are part of a calculated approach to maintain “managed instability.” These policies, heavily influenced by U.S. pressure to align with American geopolitical goals, have indirectly bolstered Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Under U.S. insistence, Israel has approved substantial Qatari aid to Hamas, often in cash, to ensure Hamas’s administrative control over Gaza, preventing a humanitarian collapse while maintaining political fragmentation between Gaza and the Palestinian Authority (PA). This U.S.-backed “divide and rule” tactic aligns with American interests in gaining a foothold in Gaza while bolstering U.S. alliances with Gulf states. Qatar’s role as the primary financial conduit, encouraged by the U.S., has elevated its influence in Gaza, positioning it as a key player in shaping the region’s political future.
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 aligns with U.S. interests in countering Iran. By empowering Hamas as a counterweight to the PA, Israel—under U.S. direction—has supported Saudi Arabia’s goal of preventing a unified Palestinian state that could complicate its regional leadership. Saudi Arabia’s public stance on a Palestinian state as a condition for normalization with Israel is a strategic maneuver to maintain Arab legitimacy, while its private flexibility, encouraged by U.S. diplomacy, prioritizes economic and security cooperation with Washington and its allies.
Shifting Regional Alliances: U.S.-Backed Saudi and Qatari Mediation
Israel’s U.S.-directed actions have prompted a realignment of regional alliances, with Saudi Arabia and Qatar emerging as key mediators in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and regional de-escalation efforts. The Gulf states’ fear of a costly war with Iran, coupled with their economic interests, aligns with U.S. priorities to make the region safe for U.S. investment through diplomacy rather than military escalation, enhancing Saudi and Qatari influence.
U.S. encouragement of Saudi Arabia’s restored relations with Iran in 2023, combined with its role in condemning Israeli actions in Gaza and Syria, has positioned Riyadh as a neutral arbiter capable of engaging both Western powers and Iran. This diplomatic flexibility, supported by U.S. policy, allows Saudi Arabia to shape regional outcomes, such as supporting Syria’s post-Assad transition and advocating for a Gaza ceasefire. Saudi Arabia’s economic power, including its $600 billion investment in the U.S. and a massive arms deal, further cements its influence with Washington, giving it a strategic edge over a sanctioned Iran.
Qatar’s U.S.-backed role as a mediator, evidenced by its success in brokering the 2025 Gaza ceasefire, has allowed it to navigate tensions between Israel, Hamas, and Iran while maintaining strong ties with the U.S. Its hosting of Hamas leaders and financial support for Gaza, facilitated by Israel under U.S. pressure, have made Qatar indispensable in regional negotiations, enhancing its influence relative to other Gulf states.
The Saudi Blind Spot: A U.S.-Enabled Advantage
Saudi Arabia’s influence, often overshadowed by the U.S.-driven focus on Iran, poses a significant long-term challenge due to its authoritarian repression, media influence, and economic leverage in the West. Israel’s U.S.-directed actions against Iran have amplified this dynamic by reducing Iran’s immediate threat, allowing Saudi Arabia to consolidate power with less scrutiny.
While Iran faces stringent U.S.-led sanctions, Saudi Arabia’s vast sovereign wealth fund and investments in Western media and economies, encouraged by U.S. economic priorities, grant it significant leverage, shielding it from criticism over its human rights abuses and regional actions. This U.S.-enabled “Saudi blind spot” allows Riyadh to project power quietly, positioning it as a dominant force in a post-Iran Middle East.
Qatar’s U.S.-supported investments in Western media, such as Al Jazeera, and its role as a diplomatic hub have allowed it to shape regional narratives without the overt hostility associated with Iran. Israel’s facilitation of Qatari aid to Gaza, under U.S. pressure, has strengthened Doha’s regional clout, aligning with American goals of maintaining a fragmented political landscape.
A U.S.-Driven Regional Order Favoring Saudi Arabia and Qatar
Israel’s actions against Iran have reshaped the Middle East’s balance of power, creating opportunities for Saudi Arabia and Qatar to emerge as dominant players. By weakening Iran’s regional network and maintaining political fragmentation, Israel—acting as a U.S. proxy—has aligned with the strategic interests of these Gulf states. Saudi Arabia’s U.S.-backed economic and diplomatic leverage, coupled with Qatar’s mediation and financial roles, positions them as the primary beneficiaries of a weakened Iran and a fragmented regional order.
While Israel’s U.S.-directed policies serve immediate American security goals, they have elevated Saudi Arabia and Qatar as pivotal actors in a reconfigured, globalist and totalitarian Middle East.
The new Middle East, with its ascendant Gulf capitals, is not a product of chance. It is a product of design.
